Physical distancing measures may need to be in place intermittently until 2022, scientists have warned in an analysis that suggests there could be resurgences of Covid-19 for years to come.
科学家在一项剖析陈述中正告称，间歇性的阻隔办法或许需求继续到2022年。这项陈述指出，未来几年，新冠疫情或许会东山再起。
The paper, published in the journalScience, concludes that a one-time lockdown will not be sufficient to bring the pandemic under control and that secondary peaks could be larger than the current one without continued restrictions.
这份宣布在《科学》期刊上的研讨陈述得出结论说，一时的封闭将不足以操控全球性盛行病，假设没有继续的约束办法，第2次疫情顶峰或许会比现在这次更严峻。
One scenario predicted a resurgence could occur as far in the future as 2025 in the absence of a vaccine or effective treatment.
该研讨的一次场景模仿猜测，在没有疫苗或有用医治办法的情况下，新冠肺炎疫情或许会在2025年再度袭来。
Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-author of the study, said: “Infections spread when there are two things: infected people and susceptible people. Unless there is some enormously larger amount of herd immunity than we’re aware of … the majority of the population is still susceptible.
研讨陈述的合著者之一、哈佛大学盛行病学教授马克·利普斯蒂奇说：“两个要素会引发盛行症的传达：被感染者和易感染者。除非集体免疫的人群比咱们所知道的大得多……不然，大多数人口都仍是易感染者。”
"Predicting the end of the pandemic in the summer [of 2020] is not consistent with what we know about the spread of infections.”
“以为疫情将在2020年夏天完毕的猜测不符合咱们关于疫情传达的了解。”
New treatments, a vaccine, or increasing critical care capacity could alleviate the need for stringent physical distancing, according to the paper. “But in the absence of these, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022,” the authors conclude.
这份研讨陈述指出，新的疗法、疫苗或急救护理才能的进步能够缓解对严厉阻隔办法的需求，可是作者总结道：“假如上述的这些都没有的话，监控和间歇性的阻隔办法或许将继续到2022年。”
The overall numbers of cases in the next five years, and the level of distancing required, were found to depend crucially on the overall current levels of infection and whether all those who are infected gain immunity and, if so, for how long. The authors cautioned that these are big unknowns and that a precise prediction of the long-term dynamics is not possible.
研讨发现，未来五年的病例总数和所需的阻隔水平很大程度上地取决于现在整体的感染水平以及被感染者是否都能取得免疫力，假如取得了免疫力，这种免疫力能够继续多久。作者正告称，这些都是很大的不知道要素，因而精确猜测疫情长时间开展态势是不或许的。
If immunity is permanent, Covid-19 could disappear for five or more years after the first outbreak, the paper suggests. If people have immunity for about a year, as is seen for some other circulating coronaviruses, an annual outbreak cycle would be the most likely outcome.
研讨陈述指出，假如被感染者能取得永久的免疫力，那么新冠肺炎疫情将会在第一次爆发至少五年后消失。假如人们的免疫力能继续一年左右，就像其他一些循环盛行的冠状病毒相同，那么一年一度的爆发周期将是最或许发生的成果。
Prof Marion Koopmans, the head of virology at the Erasmus University Medical Centre in Rotterdam, whose team is studying the antibody response of those infected, said complete and permanent protection would be unusual for a respiratory virus.
荷兰鹿特丹伊拉斯谟大学医学中心病毒学主任马里恩·科普曼斯教授说，关于呼吸道病毒而言，彻底且永久的免疫并不常见。他的团队正在研讨被感染者的抗体反响。
"What you would expect to see – hope to see – is that people who have had it once ... the disease would get milder,” she said before the latest paper was released.
在这份最新研讨陈述发布之前，她表明：“你能等待的是——期望如此——那些得过新冠肺炎的人……（再次被感染时）症状会比较轻。”
